I. When considering the matter of jihadis online, remember that most of what we think we know is based on analyses of the comments made by an handful of vocal activists. The vast majority of jihadis online, be they on forums or social networking sites[i], say nothing. Skillful translations and insightful analyses by definition tell us little about this potentially lethal yet silent majority.

II. There is no known correlation between what jihadis say online, and the threat they represent in the real world[ii]. Yes, we may target vocal activists, may create for them opportunities to become involved in crimes related to terrorism, and then arrest and prosecute them on terrorism charges. That is not a correlation between speech and action. Rather it is an expression of our own tendency to pick off the low-hanging fruit[iii].

III. Correlations[iv] will likely be found in: the presence of jihadis on a handful of forums; their consumption of jihadi text, video and audio; their connection to social networks based on a combination of ideological affinity and geographic or linguistic proximity; and their involvement in jihadi media work[v]. None of these activities requires the aspiring jihadi to say much of anything in a public venue.

IV. For the practice of counterterrorism what matters is not what jihadis say so much as what the people they associate with have said or done; the content of the media they download, view, or listen to; and the degree to which they are involved in media work. Detecting a jihadi online and locating him in physical space is relatively straight forward. The real challenge is threat assessment.

V. These are questions I ask about any jihadi online:

• Where are they?
• Who do they know?
• What have they downloaded?
• What have they uploaded?
• What communities have they joined?
• What sites are they involved in operating?

VI. More general questions I ask include:

• Do they know anyone who has been involved in terrorism?
• Do they have any history of involvement in crime?
• To what extent have they been exposed to violence?
• Does their personal history suggest an increased risk of suicide?

Notes

[i] To include Facebook and Youtube.

[ii] Neither am I aware of evidence to support the Catharsis Hypothesis, i.e. that expressing violent intentions reduces the risk of perpetrating violence. A better explanation is that perpetrating an act of violence involves the interplay of a number of factors which are not equally present for all times, places, and people.

[iii] This is not to say we should forgo such investigations: if someone expresses a clear interest in engaging in terrorism we have not only the right but the responsibility to take them seriously

[iv] We will assume for this discussion that such correlations exist. It's a pretty safe bet.

[v] Defined broadly here as actions related to the production, distribution, and re-distribution of text, video and audio produced either directly by or in support of jihadi terrorist organizations, or the waging of violent jihad generally, and less often - but of significance - the setting up and operating of jihadi websites ranging from Youtube channels to forums.

This is about a chain of associations.

It begins with Inspire 5, within the pages of which Charles Cameron noted an article reminiscing on the author's time fighting the United States in Fallujah, Iraq. You should read Cameron's piece - he's addressing an aspect of jihadism that I think deserves more attention.

The story from Fallujah includes the following incident:

Hardship and severe exhaustion were afflicting us due to the hot weather that was in the beginning of Ramadan.

So that brother came at the time of afternoon and sought permission from the Amir to break his fast. Some brothers advised him to have patience and suggested to him that he could have a shower and then rest for a while. The brother went inside to sleep out of fatigue and we were sitting in front of that house. The brother didn’t sleep long and we saw him coming out towards us with a cheerful face saying to us that he had seen a dream while he was asleep. The brothers asked him what was it; he told them that he saw a very beautiful woman coming to him, carrying a plate full of all kinds of fruits. She was waking him up, standing by his head and telling him: O Abu az-Zubair, don’t break your fast. You are invited to break your fast with us today. The brother then said that he felt comfort and relief. There was a brother called Abu Tariq who interpreted dreams so he told him that by Allah’s will, it will be something good. After that the brother decided to continue fasting.

We had a timetable for twelve people to cook food and that day was his turn. He went to the kitchen and we stayed outside, sitting next to the wall of that house so that we weren’t seen by the spy planes. We stayed there until it was about time to break fast. Suddenly an F-16 jet showed up in the horizon and targeted that kitchen with a missile where that brother was! A while after when the dust had settled, we went in the kitchen and saw that brother had been martyred. It was amazing how the smell of musk was all over the room, how the smile was on his face!

Make what you will of the appearance of the lady. My gut reaction was that the brother's only mistake was in thinking she was on his side. It also put me in mind of the poem by Keats, La Belle Dame Sans Merci, e.g.

She found me roots of relish sweet,
   And honey wild, and manna dew,
And sure in language strange she said—
   “I love thee true.”

The title of this entry is from another poem by Keats, and is, among other things, reminiscent of the jihadi refrain "We love death more than you love life." (And yes, the last word is "meed" not "mead").

What I mean to suggest is that jihadis are Romantics of a sort. I find this interesting, feel that it illuminates a portion of their mental landscape.

That is all...

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meed |mēd| noun archaic

a deserved share or reward : he must extract from her some meed of approbation.

ORIGIN Old English mēd, of Germanic origin; from an Indo-European root shared by Greek misthos ‘reward.’

Of the videos failed Stockholm suicide bomber Taimour al-Abdally 'shared' via his Facebook account the source of 46 could be identified. Of those six had been removed due to Terms of Service violations. In some cases the uploading account was also terminated, presumably as a result of repeat violations. The table below summarizes the findings (I have not had to the time to do a detailed content analysis).

See also:

• Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: The first 100 members
and
• Operation Hemorrhoid

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* Usernames in Arabic characters were munged and so have been deleted.

A systematic sample (every K^th) of 100 IPs from 1,102 collected in November 2010. Times are zulu/GMT. The list was sorted by IP address before sampling, as a result of which the 94.*.*.* and 95.*.*.* are under represented (as is Jordan).

NOTE: IF YOU ARE AN AMERICAN, AND YOU DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO SUBPOENA SERVICE PROVIDERS FOR ACCOUNT INFORMATION, DO NOT EVEN START TO TRY AND FIGURE OUT WHO IS BEHIND THESE AMERICAN IP ADDRESSES, BECAUSE YOU'LL JUST F*CK UP SOMEONE'S INVESTIGATION AND ALONG THE WAY YOU WILL LIKELY ACCUSE INNOCENT PEOPLE OF INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM. IS THAT CLEAR?