1. The video claiming credit for the Times Square bombing attempt
a. Was posted on a YouTube account created immediately before the bombing
b. Was titled "Qari Hussain Mehsud from Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan accepts the recent Attack on Times Square"
c. Was reported first to Bill Roggio, operator of The Long War Journal, by the TTP - they are fans of his work
d. Appears to have been made prior to the bombing
e. Uses language "...accepts the recent attack..." which *might* suggest that the act was done on their behalf - rather than directly by them - and assumes the attack was successful, which also supports the idea of a certain disconnect between the perpetrator and the sponsoring organization.
2. Significantly, immediately after informing Bill Roggio of the video claiming or "accepting" the Times Square attack, the same individual from the TTP who contacted Roggio was independently observed by others uploading the second video, from Hakeem-ullah Mehsud, to archive.org. This video is dated April 4 (by Mehsud) and threatens attacks within the USA.
3. The above leads one to the conclusion that the TTP had prior knowledge of the attack in NYC, though the precise nature of the links between Faisal Shahzad and the TTP is not clear. What is clear is that the TTP in general, and Hakeem-ullah Mehsud in particular, are angry and will be doing their best to carry out or facilitate additional attacks within the USA. It's one thing to use missiles to decapitate a terrorist organization - it's another matter altogether when one tries, but fails, leaving the target(s) knowing that they don't have long to live and so have nothing left to lose.
4. In more general terms, we seem to be facing a threat that has grown to include multiple centers of gravity, including the syndicate of AQ-linked jihadi outfits in Pakistan (and affiliated Indian Muslims, e.g. SIMI, IM), and the AQ Arabian Peninsula/al-Shabaab confederacy. Both centers have connections to numerous individuals in the USA - both converts and 1st/2nd/3rd generation immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Yemen, and Somalia.
5. It is fashionable to dismiss al-Qaida fan clubs like Revolution Muslim as insignificant, because RM has so few members (the number 13 is often cited). The problem is that the social networks that are the foundation for Revolution Muslim are composed of over 18,000 people, many of whom are located in the USA or in countries whose citizens enjoy relatively free access to the United States (e.g. Britain). Do the math.
6. Finally, these centers of gravity are somewhat arbitrary constructs. In reality there is overlap between the two camps, they exist in relatively close proximity to each other, and individuals in the USA and elsewhere are well-positioned to serve as bridging links, providing lines of communication between Yemen/Somalia, AfPak, and CONUS.
See also:
• Surrogate Jihadis in US by B.Raman
• Enemies, both foreign and domestic